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Huatai Securities: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp in December, but the path of interest rate cut in 2025 is highly uncertain. Huatai Securities said that the overall inflation in November in the United States was in line with expectations, and the slight cooling of service inflation partially eased the market's concerns about inflation rebound. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp in December, but the path of interest rate cut in 2025 is highly uncertain. Recently, the overall economic momentum of the United States has rebounded: from September to November, the PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States has rebounded for three consecutive months; After the election, enterprises, especially small enterprises, are expected to improve, and the recent NFIB SME confidence index has rebounded significantly; The latest Atlanta GDP Now shows that the fourth quarter GDP growth rate of the United States is 3.3% year-on-year. However, considering that the unemployment rate data rebounded in November, and the recent inflation is still relatively moderate, we expect that the recent data may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates at its December meeting next week. However, in 2025, the growth and inflation path of the United States was disturbed by the Trump policy, and the Federal Reserve may "make a camera choice" on the basis of watching the overall economic trend. There is uncertainty in the path of interest rate cut in 2025.CICC: Inflation in the United States may push the "hawks to cut interest rates". The CICC research report said that inflation data opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates next week, but we also predicted that the "hawks to cut interest rates" will be staged next week, and the Fed may cut the guidance on interest rate cuts in the bitmap. We predict that the new bitmap will show that the total interest rate will be cut twice in 2025 (compared with four times before), and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of next year.On the evening of December 10th, Sunac announced that two bonds, H6 Rongdi 01 and H0 Sunac 03, had taken the lead in voting on restructuring, and the other eight bonds still had two weeks to vote, and the voting results of the overall restructuring of 10 bonds would finally be ushered in on December 23rd. On November 27th, Sunac announced the second restructuring plan for domestic bonds, involving four restructuring options and a total of 10 bonds. Some analysts said that although the final result has not yet been settled, two bonds successfully passed the restructuring vote in a short period of time, indicating that some investors still have confidence in Sunac. Liu Shui, director of enterprise research at the China Central Finger Research Institute, told reporters that the recent stabilization of the real estate market and the improvement of creditors' confidence will be beneficial to the debt restructuring of real estate enterprises in danger. (21 Finance)

High-word-of-mouth movies rush to the box office at the end of the year. The Spring Festival file in 2025 is expected to usher in a strong performance. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of December 11 (17: 40), the cumulative box office of 20 movies in 2024 has reached 1.119 billion yuan. Among them, "Good Things" has a box office of 569 million yuan and a douban score of 9.1, which leads both word-of-mouth and box office. In addition, this week's three potential new films, Broken Hell, Misjudgment and Lion Boy 2, have been screened and entered the box office sprint at the end of the year. It is also known that four films, Nezha's Devil Children Roaring the Sea, The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Great Man, The Fortunes of the Gods Part II: The War in the West, The Bear Appears and Restarts the Future, have been confirmed to be scheduled for the Spring Festival in 2025. The "National Film Consumption Season for the benefit of the people" launched by the State Film Bureau on December 9 will last from December 2024 to February 2025, and a total of not less than 600 million yuan will be invested in movie viewing subsidies, covering the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival files, which will help promote the market's enthusiasm for watching movies. Huatai Securities released a research report saying that the box office of the Spring Festival in 2025 is expected to usher in a strong performance. In 2025, the supply and demand sides of the film market are expected to improve, or will push the fundamental inflection point of the cinema line plate upward. (Securities Daily)The vice chairman of Bosch's supervisory board said that as many as 10,000 jobs in Germany are at risk. Frank Sell, vice chairman of the supervisory board of Bosch, the world's top auto parts supplier, said on Wednesday that a series of layoffs announced by Bosch recently have put about 8,000-10,000 jobs in Germany at risk. Sell, who is also the chairman of the labor committee of Bosch's key business mobile solutions division, said that Bosch's overall plan has created an atmosphere that he called "absolutely intolerable" within the group. Bosch has about 135,000 employees in Germany.South Korean President Yin Xiyue: The opposition party tried to paralyze the government. The opposition tried to get me out of office.

CICC: Inflation in the United States may push the "hawks to cut interest rates". The CICC research report said that inflation data opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates next week, but we also predicted that the "hawks to cut interest rates" will be staged next week, and the Fed may cut the guidance on interest rate cuts in the bitmap. We predict that the new bitmap will show that the total interest rate will be cut twice in 2025 (compared with four times before), and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of next year.South Korean President Yin Xiyue made a speech to the people on the 12th, accusing the opposition party of framing "the crime of civil strife" and engaging in impeachment. (Xinhua News Agency)Brazilian farmers' lobby demanded the lifting of the ban on planting soybeans in the deforested Amazon rainforest. A Brazilian farmers' lobby is seeking to terminate a 20-year-old agreement that prohibits grain traders from buying soybeans from deforested farms in the Amazon rainforest, claiming that the agreement has created an unfair competition environment. Aprosoja-MT, a soybean farmers' lobbying organization located in western Mato Grosso, said on Wednesday that the agreement encouraged "purchasing cartels" and harmed the interests of farmers who strictly abide by the forest laws of South American countries. The statement said that it had formally asked the anti-monopoly watchdog CADE to terminate the agreement.